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CURRENT ANALYSIS
11/19/08
Pat Hill- Overrated??
Fresno State Head Coach Pat Hill is highly regarded by the college football community. His teams are tough to play, and he isn't afraid to schedule and travel to the top schools in the country. His attitude is "We will play anyone,anywhere". He has earned respect by pulling off upsets, and coming up with some near upsets. Hill turned down offers to coach at BCS schools earlier in his career. He is now in his 12th season at Fresno. He has a career record of 91-59 at Fresno. The program's land mark win was at Wisconsin in 2001. They nearly beat top ranked USC in 2005, falling 50-42. What is lost in the perception of Pat Hill is the fact that his teams often get upset too. In 2001,they started 6-0 including 3 straight upsets to start the season, but got upset by Boise State and Hawaii. In 2005, after the USC loss that got the nation's attention, they lost thier next 2 games at Nevada 38-35 as 15 point favorites, and vs. Louisiana Tech 40-28 as 23 1/2 favorites. This year they have been upset by Hawaii and Louisiana Tech. My only theory that explains this is that they spend so much energy trying to pull the upset, they lose focus in "trap games".
10/31/08
CAN TEBOW REPEAT AS HEISMAN WINNER?
Last season, Tim Tebow won the Heisman, in part because the wasn't a dominant player on the best teams. LSU had no contenders, Ohio State's Todd Boeckman had an outside chance. So Tebow won it due to his outstanding production, despite the Gators 3 losses. This year, he has gotten off to a slow start, but Florida's offense is getting more healthy. To become the first back to back winner since Archie Griffin, he first need Florida to win out. He will also need Texas and current front runner Colt McCoy to lose. If the Longhorns get past Texas Tech, the only chance they have to lose would be vs. Kansas or in the Big 12 Championship Game, but it would be unlikely. If Texas Tech upsets Texas, then QB Graham Harrell will have a shot. He remnds me of Colt Brennan who entered last year's race as a long shot. His production was impressive, but he got the invitation to NY as window dressing. Tebow was a lock. Harrell is a lanky gunlslinger like Brennan, but he has played a tougher schedule, and is a more serious candidate. Michael Crabtree could also get some consideration. Other longshots could include Michigan State RB Javon Ringer or Penn State QB Daryll Clark. Alabama has no candidate. John Parker Wilson has not distinguished himself, and their best offensive player is freshman WR Julio Jones. So Tebow needs Texas Tech to beat Texas, then Oklahoma beat Texas Tech, and the race could be wide open again. This year, he has time, and if the dominoes fall right, his claim will be he is the best player on the best team.
Comp picks:
Monday: SEC play of week- LSU -5 1/2 OVER Mississippi
Tuesday: Comp. Dog- Michigan State +17 1/2 OVER Penn State
Wednesday: AFC Play of the week-
Thursday:
Friday:
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